Ireland: Lisbon Treaty referendum ‑ Yes vote wins, but it's cold comfort for Cowen

With all the mainstream parties and top business people campaigning for a Yes vote with huge resources at their disposal, and with most of the trade union leaders also backing the campaign, it is not surprising that the Irish bourgeois managed to overturn the result of the previous referendum. This vote, however, cannot hide the growing class polarisation taking place in the country.

The Lisbon Treaty Referendum has resulted in a victory for the Yes camp by 67.1% to 32.9%. The result was in part due to the enormous resources of the Yes campaign which had the support of big business, Robbie Keane, the Bishops, Seamus Heaney and of all the government and main opposition parties. The outcome was a dramatic reversal of the last referendum with swings of more or less 20% in many constituencies.

The Irish bourgeois are firmly wedded to the European Union and the eurozone. Therefore it is not surprising that they decided to throw their weight behind the campaign. Ryanair for example, spent €500,000 on the Yes campaign. Intel, who have just received a €1 billion antitrust fine from the EU, chipped in €200,000.

The Lisbon Treaty represents a potential strengthening of the "Bosses’ Europe", and as such we firmly oppose it. The result of the referendum is a defeat for workers, but it doesn't radically alter the political scenario in Ireland. Cowen and the Greens will have woken up with a bad hangover the day after the celebration party. But unfortunately for them the hangover won't go away. The coalition is in serious trouble and "normal service" will be resumed shortly.

Sections of the No campaign have made the point that the Irish were “bullied” into voting Yes in the referendum. The press release from the No campaign explained that:

"The victory of the Yes campaign in the Lisbon referendum is the result of sustained bullying, threats and lies by the Government, the Opposition, the leaders of the EU and the majority of the Trade Union leadership.

“While we accept the outcome of the referendum, we think that the ratification of an anti-democratic Treaty has been achieved by anti-democratic means.

“Rather than creating jobs, the Lisbon Treaty will drive cuts in public spending and make the recession worse — particularly for the poor.

“The betrayal by the Labour and trade union leaders was particularly cynical. Only three days ago, Jack O'Connor of SIPTU and Shay Cody of IMPACT publicly pledged resistance to the Government's proposed social spending cuts in front of a big demonstration outside the Dáil. Yet they know that the proposed cuts constitute the Government's willing implementation of the EU's demands last April for spending cuts to comply with the rules of the Stability and Growth Pact — and that the power to enforce these rules is strengthened by Lisbon.

“They also know that control of speculative financial trading — the root cause of the financial crash — is made more difficult by Lisbon. Yet they concealed these facts and supported the Government's call for a Yes vote.

“This referendum battle may be over, but the struggle to resist neoliberalism, and the militarism which is an intrinsic part of it, will continue. We will campaign to build the broadest opposition to the proposed Bórd Snip cuts and future betrayals by the leaders of the trade union movement in Ireland.”

It is clear that the Labour and Trade union leaders swallowed the line from big business that the vote on the treaty was about jobs. As we have explained elsewhere; there is always a tendency for the trade union leaders to seek agreements and compromises with the bourgeois. It should be no surprise to anyone that they took the Yes line in the referendum. After all, the experience of the last few months has been one of frantic attempts by the Trade Union leaders to try and seek talks and more talks with the government and the employers. This isn’t so much a “cynical betrayal” but a continuation of the same tired old policy. The policy has a name; it is called “following the line of least resistance”.

But does the collaboration between the parties and the huge campaign for this vote mean that we are on the brink of a period of social peace and “sweetness and light”? On the contrary, the period that has opened up is the most unstable since the end of the civil war after the founding of the Free State. Peace and harmony, like everything else under capitalism require a social base. That base simply does not exist. The economy is in freefall and the state is in a deep crisis. The main political parties may have been united in favour of Lisbon, but the class divisions and contradictions in Ireland today mean that the next period will be one of storm and stress. This will be particularly the case in respect of the trade unions and the Labour Party also.

Lisbon has held the headlines for a while, but in the background the opinion polls have been demonstrating the extent of the problems that Cowen faces. The core vote for FF is down to 9% and the Greens are divided over the way ahead. Fine Gael and Labour are riding high in the polls and there are a whole series of industrial disputes on the horizon. The struggles of the working class will be reflected in the unions and in the Labour Party at a certain stage. The key task of Marxism has always been to struggle for the leadership of the working class. In the first instance that means seeking to win the most advanced layers of the working class away from the bankrupt ideas of reformism.

But it is also important to put things into perspective. The Yes vote for Lisbon is a defeat for workers, but it will not have long lasting effects on the consciousness of the working class. The economic crisis and the attacks on jobs, wages and conditions are a far bigger factor in most workers’ minds. The next period internationally and particularly in Ireland will be one of struggle and instability. Under those conditions the ideas of Marxism will be a vital tool within the workers’ movement and among the youth.

Source: Fightback - Ireland