Egypt: SCAF-organised elections will not satisfy aspirations of the masses

On Friday more than a million Egyptian youth, workers and poor yet again assembled in Tahrir Square. The masses have once again risen in an attempt to remove the remnants of the Mubarak regime, which are still in power. Not far from Tahrir, in Abbassiya Square, not more than a couple of thousand people gathered in a pathetic demonstration in support of the SCAF. To the sceptics who did not believe in the revolution, this should be a clear demonstration of the real balance of forces. But at the same time the revolution clearly faces obstacles, not from external forces, but in its own internal contradictions.

Differentiation within the movement

The past ten days we have witnessed the most intense struggles between the masses and the remnants of the old ruling cliques – the SCAF and the Central Security Forces. Day after day hundreds of thousands have gathered in Tahrir Square and fought with the police and the army. More than 40 protestors have been killed and more than 4000 injured.

At the same time the Muslim Brotherhood has come out fully in opposition to the revolution. Not only did it come out against the demonstration on Friday, but in a move aimed at dividing the movement, it called for a separate demonstration against "Jerusalem’s Judaisation".

All the forces that once appeared as a united bloc are increasingly separating out into two distinct camps, between the exploiters and the exploited. On the one side there are the men of business, i.e. the Muslim Brotherhood, the Islamist Salafists, the Liberals and the Army High command. On the other side you find the youth, the workers and the poor, i.e. the working masses who made the revolution, but who do not see any significant change.

Massive demonstration

Friday of Last ChanceDespite all attempts to undermine it, every hour tens of thousands of protesters streamed into Tahrir Square early Friday morning. The “Friday of Last Chance”, as the organisers had dubbed the protest, far exceeded the size of the “million man march” held last Tuesday. Chants of “The people are a red line”, “Down with military rule” and “Tantawi has gone crazy and now wants to be president” could be heard all over the square. Besides Cairo, tens of thousands gathered in other cities across Egypt.

“I came here on Saturday to join my brothers, protest and fight those brutal officers,” said Gamal Ali, a 24-year-old university graduate who sold gas masks on the square, to The Guardian, “I don't have money; I decided to sell masks during the day and protest at night.”

“The military is killing us because we are protesting that we don't have jobs. I studied business and now I am a street vendor barely making a living,” he said summing up the essence of the situation.

All layers of the masses joined in. A number of high school students, organised a march from Giza towards the square to express their solidarity. Also students from the American University in Cairo, who were on strike and had occupied their campus, marched to the rally.

A strike was also called by several union bodies. But due to the fact that no national coordinating body or even significant regional bodies exist, such a call did not materialise. Despite this, several factories and workers’ formations marched to the square. These are very important steps as the working class – as was shown in February – played the decisive role in bringing down the regime. In the end the future development of the movement is dependent on the involvement of the working class, but it is still early days for a class that has not had experience in organising on a big scale for more than six decades. In spite of all this, working class organisation is crystallizing under the hammer blows of events.

What is clear is that workers, at least on an individual basis, had a big presence at the rally. Although all platforms had been removed and all political slogans banned, the spirit in the rally was one of optimism and confidence.

The militant protestors agreed on three basic demands: the immediate transfer of power to a civilian body; immediate trials for officers responsible for the killing of protestors since January 25; and the dismantling of the Central Security Forces.

The junta is shaking

About ten days into this second round of the Egyptian revolution, the SCAF now stands increasingly isolated and its rule is losing legitimacy. Only two weeks ago, a superficial look at the situation would have led many to believe that the generals faced opposition only from a tiny minority of “extremists”. Aided by the Muslim Brotherhood, the Salafists and the liberal parties, the SCAF attempted to create the illusion that it was at the service of the revolutionary people. But below the surface the contradictions between the rule of the SCAF and the aims and aspirations of the masses were piling up. Then on Saturday, November 19, in the course of a few hours, everything changed.

The generals thought they could score an easy victory by clearing a few thousand demonstrators from Tahrir Square. But the attack had the opposite effect. Marx explained that sometimes a revolution needs the whip of the counter-revolution in order to drive it forward. The attack on Tahrir Square, instead of demoralizing the masses and strengthening the rule of the SCAF, had the effect of radicalising the revolution and bringing all the pent up contradictions to the surface.

All illusions were shattered and the vanguard of the movement, that a few weeks ago had seemed isolated when they protested against the rule of the SCAF, was now joined by broad sections of the masses that came out to defend the revolution.

On the following Sunday and Monday [November 21-21] hundreds of thousands came out onto the streets culminating in the million man march on Tuesday. Then again during the following days anything between 200,000 and 400.000 people came out on the streets, defying the thick fog of potentially lethal teargas that the armed forces were using to cover the whole area around Tahrir. The climax of the week was on Friday, when we saw demonstrations involving between 1.5 and 2 million people gathered in Tahrir and across the country.

None of the moves of the SCAF and the police had the desired effect. Their violent attacks only served to radicalise the movement further, while its concessions and steps back were seen as signs of weakness.

Thousands of people sustained injuries from tear gas, rubber bullets and live ammunition. But this violence did not break the spirit of the protestors. If anything, it strengthened their resolve to take their battle against the ruling military council to a new level.

The reactions of the military rulers also reflected their sudden loss of legitimacy. To begin with, they denied that anything significant was happening in Tahrir Square, but as the movement developed the top brass of the army appeared more and more isolated.

On Monday night the government of Essam Sharaf resigned – for the second time since August – displaying the obvious weakness of the SCAF. But the split was not due to the sudden democratic sentiments of the Sharaf government. The pressure from below was causing cracks to appear in the regime. The revolution was eating its way into the fragile social base of the Junta.

Officers’ revolt

A clear indication of this was seen on Tuesday when, along with millions of ordinary men and women, several army officers joined the crowds in Tahrir Square wearing their military uniforms. The officers, who were carried on the shoulders of a sea of people, publicly exposed the real situation within the army, where it is clear that the ordinary soldiers and lower ranking officers are not all with the SCAF. This open and public defiance of the officers was a warning to the generals that they could easily end up being a military high-command with no army.

Again, after Friday’s massive mobilisation the layer of officers openly joining the anti-SCAF demonstrations rose. Captain Ahmed Shouman, who is acquiring vast popularity amongst the revolutionary youth, was quoted as saying that, “The Supreme Council of the Armed Forces does not reflect the whole Egyptian army. We must be in cohesion with the Egyptian people once again. This is the best way. We must resort to the essence of the revolution.”

Another army officer, Major Tamer Samir Badr, told The Guardian: “I want the people to know there are army officers who are with them, my feelings came to a head last week when I saw people dying, and the army gave the orders for us to just stand and watch. I’m supposed to die for these people, not them die for me. Now I’m ready to die in the square, and I’m not afraid of anything.”

Speaking next to an open window that looked out on to Tahrir Square, and which Badr insisted was left open so that he could hear the crowds, the 37-year-old claimed that many other officers had been attending the protests secretly in civilian clothes.

“Scaf is composed of 19 generals and they are the ones who have power in this country. But those 19 are nothing compared to the thousands of people in the forces. I demand that the field marshal hand over power to a civilian government immediately, and that he just leave,” he said.

“Of course this puts me in danger, but I am on the right side. I’m with the people. If I die, I will die with a clean conscience. Either I will get killed in the square, or get sent to a military court, then prison.”

Major, Amr Metlwaly added: “I have been a military man for a long time; it does not matter if we represent the Egyptian civilians or the armed personnel. But most important of all is that we are all from Egypt; we stand side by side with the revolutionaries and we stand in support of the revolution.”

He condemned the killing of protesters as being part of a Western plot to derail the revolution in Egypt. He denounced the junta's stance against the revolutionaries and the use of excessive force against protesters.

These developments must be causing alarm amongst the ruling clique in Egypt (and its masters in the US). They know the Egyptian army is made up of different layers. These officers are very much under pressure from ordinary rank and file soldiers who belong to the people. Egypt has a tradition of nationalist, left leaning officers. We must not forget that the very popular Egyptian nationalist Gamal Abdel Nasser, who swung far to the left during his rule in the 1950’s, originally came to power through an officer’s coup. At some point in the future, the repetition of such developments, especially in the absence of any revolutionary party and leadership, cannot be entirely ruled out.

New government, old tricks

In any case the open opposition of a layer of officers to the SCAF exposes its weakness. In an attempt to win back some of the lost territory Tantawi appointed Kamal Ganzouri as new prime minister. Ganzouri served as prime minister from 1996 to 1999 under Mubarak, but later on distanced himself from him. Clearly the military were trying to use him to dupe the masses once more, but this blatant manoeuvre did not work. As the news was reaching Tahrir’s million man march on Tuesday, the crowds chanted, “Illegitimate, illegitimate!"

One protester Mohammed el-Fayoumi, 29, summed it up for The Guardian, “Not only was he prime minister under Mubarak, but also part of the old regime for a total of 18 years. Why did we have a revolution then?” Another protester in the square, 45 year old Fatma Ramadan, told Bloomberg: “He was the one who oversaw the privatization of companies and fired workers; he has many problems.”

It is clear to all parties, that Ganzouri is nothing but the puppet of the SCAF. Appointing him resembles Mubarak’s dismissal of the cabinet of Ahmed Nazif in the last days of January. Many of the actions of Tantawi in fact resemble the actions of Mubarak in his last days. He has appeared on TV on several occasions, making promises and concessions mixed with threats of chaos and terrible repercussions.

As for the concessions, they are seen to be too little, too late and as for the threats; they only serve to further radicalize the movement at the present. A recent poll shows that 43% of Egyptians believe their country’s military rulers are working to slow down or reverse the gains of the Tahrir Square uprising. The poll was conducted before the events of last week.

Any regime needs a social base to consolidate its rule. The SCAF, however, has not even begun to consolidate its rule, and it is already losing the slim social base it had. It is clear that the fall of the SCAF is merely a question of when and how.

The Muslim Brotherhood

The most important ally of the SCAF in the last nine months has been the Muslim Brotherhood. The organisation, that was the loyal “opposition” during the Mubarak era, has remained loyal to its role of being the second line of defence for capitalism in Egypt.

In January and February, the party refused to publicly support the revolution which de facto meant support for Mubarak. A vast layer of the youth of the organisation, however, broke away and joined the revolution in Tahrir Square, openly defying the party leadership.

After the revolution this behaviour of the leadership of the Muslim Brotherhood has continued. They have been firm defenders of the SCAF, constantly calling for “patience” and “restraint” on the part of the revolutionary masses who have protested against the rule of the Junta. In return the Junta has drawn up the electoral rules in such a way that the Muslim Brotherhood and the old remnants of Mubarak’s NDP are assured a majority of the seats. As under Mubarak’s regime, the Brotherhood’s leadership will remain silent as long as the party is allowed access to the corrupt corridors of parliament and the state apparatus.

This has been clearly exposed in the last week. Whereas the Brotherhood, under immense pressure from below, had to call a demonstration on Friday, 18^th November, it had no intention of following up on it. Over that weekend, where the army was violently attacking protesters, injuring thousands and killing tens, the Brotherhood publicly distanced itself from the revolutionary masses, going so far as to even discourage its members from participating.

Again on Tuesday of last week, as more than a million took to the streets, the Brotherhood discouraged its members from going to the rally. Instead it said that its members should focus on the parliamentary elections, which in the eyes of the revolutionary masses no longer had any legitimacy. And finally on Friday the party was exposed as a fully counter-revolutionary force, as it called for a separate demonstration in a deliberate attempt to divide the movement – an attempt that if it had been successful could have had fatal consequences for the masses in Tahrir Square.

The Brotherhood has now lost all authority with the revolutionaries. An indication of this was seen in the fact that Mohamed el Beltagi, secretary-general of the Muslim Brotherhood's Freedom and Justice Party, was carried out of the square by his assistants on Monday last week after being attacked by protesters.

The Guardian correctly observed: “The leadership of the Muslim Brotherhood has declared against the protests. This has been a very bad move. They’re perceived to have sided with SCAF against the people. They’ve caused a split within their own ranks: some members of the Brotherhood have disobeyed orders and obeyed their consciences and joined the protests. But the Brotherhood can no longer claim that the numbers in the streets are due to the Islamists – the numbers we’ve been seeing in the streets of Egypt since Saturday night [November 19] are mostly without the Brotherhood.”

Unfortunately, some on the left who claim to be Marxists, instead of appealing to the ranks of the Muslim Brotherhood on class lines, they collaborated with its capitalist leadership, thus giving them anti-imperialist and revolutionary credentials. In doing this they only helped to sow illusions in the Muslim Brotherhood and create confusion amongst a layer of youth. In doing so, they have also damaged their own reputation and also created confusion as to what the position of genuine Marxists on this question is. Genuine Marxists are opposed to Islamic fundamentalism and explain that it plays a reactionary role. It attempts to portray itself as “revolutionary” while in reality it defends the status quo, the privileged and the rich at the expense of the working mass. This is now becoming clear to the revolutionary wing of the mass movement in Egypt.

Need for a workers’ alternative

Egypt elections - Illustration: Carlos LatuffIf one thing has characterized the Egyptian revolution, in relation to other revolutions, it is the crisis of all established political currents and their lack of authority. The reason for this is clear. None of the big political forces today represent any real break with the past. They are all “liberals”, i.e. bourgeois political forces, some of whom are trying to exploit their position of semi-opposition during the Mubarak era. The truth is that they were not genuinely against the Mubarak regime, but it was the regime that could not tolerate them, as it could not tolerate any form of opposition that might provide a channel to the growing anger of the masses. In fact many of them, just like the Muslim Brotherhood, made secret deals with the regime. They are essentially all bourgeois parties and are thus organically incapable of representing the revolution. That is why the masses correctly do not trust them.

“All they care about is elections and seats in parliament,” said Mohamed Zinhom, a 28-year-old mechanic who was shot in the arm last Sunday [November 20] to Ahram Online. “They abandoned us and went to hold talks with our killers. How can I trust them?” Another activist said: “The political forces are the reason we’re in this mess in the first place. They’re all working for their own interests and don’t care about the general welfare.”

At the same time the left organisations, apart from those who were not already associated with the old regime, like the Taggammu party, have either isolated themselves through sectarian methods as mentioned above, or like the Communist Party of Egypt, focussed all their political campaigns against “islamism” and “islamisation”. Instead of putting forward social demands and exposing the bourgeois nature of the Brotherhood and the other Islamic parties, they have decisively aligned themselves with the liberal “secularists” and are seen by the masses more as “anti-Muslim” in general than anti-Muslim Brotherhood.

In fact, in one way or another, they all fall into the reformist camp, which means they try to address the problems of society from within the confines of the capitalist system. However, to think that any significant reforms are achievable under the present conditions of capitalist crisis is sheer utopia. The only real and sustainable alternative to the present society is socialism, where the economy and the state power are directly under the control of the masses.

Thus, not daring to say what is true, all the parties, in the final analysis, end up moving in the same direction, i.e. the defence of the status quo. Thus, the level of trust in the established political forces is so low that the activists at Tahrir Square have banned all party-political propaganda, leaflets, uniforms and speeches.

But this move will not solve anything. Standing in the way of the revolution are not political ideas in general, but the political ideas of the established parties. The main weakness of the revolution up until now has been precisely the lack of a genuinely revolutionary leadership.

Until now, on a national scale the movement has been under the influence of liberal leaders, one more cowardly than the other. What needs to be done is not for the revolution to oppose parties per se, but to build its own party, based on the revolutionary workers and youth. This must be the main task of all honest revolutionaries.

What lies ahead?

Nine months after the beginning of the Egyptian revolution it is clear for most Egyptians that the fundamental problems have not been solved. Unemployment and poverty far from being solved are rising towards historical levels, at the same time it is clear that the state apparatus is still under the control of the counter-revolution that has no intention of granting the masses any significant democratic rights.

The SCAF, who has the backing of US imperialism and the old ruling clique, is manoeuvring to stay in power, but it has lost all legitimacy. The elections are taking place, but the parliament that will emerge from such elections will not have the authority the present regime would wish it to have. The problem is what is to take its place?

In a counter-move to the appointment of Ganzouri, the activists in Tahrir Square on Friday organised a sort of election with prominent politicians as candidates. On the basis of this they presented an alternative “Government of National Salvation”. Heading this government was Mohamad El-Baradei. This would inicate that, among the activists “government” is already seen as being far more legitimate than any official body.

Mohammad El-Baradei at the World Economic Forum 2008 - photo: Kimse (talk)The fact, however, is that El Baradei, rather than being the favourite of the revolutionaries was merely seen as the least useless among the politicians that people can vote for. In fact when El Baradei tried to enter Tahrir Square earlier on the same day he met such resistance that he had to be escorted out again. The situation amongst even his own supporters is not much better. A few weeks back his campaign faced collective resignations of campaign staff in ten of the provinces, and amongst these was Cairo itself. The staff was protesting against the bureaucratic manner in which the campaign was being conducted.

This does not come as a surprise. El Baradei was groomed in the corridors of the UN and the so-called “international community”. Accustomed to reaching deals in the comfort of top class hotels and plush convention halls, he is by nature distrustful of the masses and clearly feels uncomfortable in their presence. His cowardice was shown in the run-up to last year’s parliamentary campaign, in which he could have used the occasion to gather a layer of activists around him on at least a genuinely democratic programme. However, due to his distrustful and weak nature, and due to the fact that his aim was clearly to channel the growing mass opposition down the road of bourgeois compromise, he failed miserably and subsequently ended up disappearing from the scene for several months.

The fact is that this time – having clearly seen the revolutionary potential of the masses to overthrow the whole regime and the rich who back it – he will be even more inclined to betray the masses than before. He will most likely attempt to portray himself as the “true” representative of the people for a short period before exposing himself as yet another lapdog of the rulers and call for “unity” behind some kind of “transitional” (read bourgeois) regime.

It is not possible to foresee in advance all the details of how the situation will unfold. A revolution is an infinitely complex process, with all kinds of possible temporary aberrations, figures who appear and disappear as each is put to the test. What we can conclude, however, is the following.

The balance of forces is overwhelmingly in favour of the masses that are confident and undefeated. At the same time the regime is weak, lacking legitimacy and in a deep crisis. However, in spite of this it still controls the state and the commanding heights of the economy remain in the hands of the ruling bourgeois elite. The main obstacle facing the movement is to be found in the lack of a clear leadership of the revolution that is capable of leading it to take power and expropriate the old rulers. Due to this lack of revolutionary leadership, the movement will inevitably take a series of detours as it tries all the available options. In the process the movement will learn and move to a higher level.

The elections that were improvised on Friday’s march can play the role of propaganda tool, but can in no way provide a way out of the situation. What is required are real elections of committees in the workplaces, in the neighbourhoods, with representatives being elected from the bottom up across the whole country, coming together as a genuine representative body of the revolutionary people. To cleanse Egypt of all the muck from the old regime, to provide the masses with a genuine democratic expression what is required is a Revolutionary Constituent Assembly, and such a body can only be elected under the supervision of the above described committees.

The elections organised by the SCAF have already lost much of their legitimacy. The most advanced wing of the movement has correctly called for a boycott. But a boycott where people just stay home in and of itself is not enough. The question is: what is the alternative? Millions of people will vote in these elections as they see them as the only way of expressing their desire for change. The parties on offer, however, cannot provide that change. Furthermore, the SCAF and the Muslim Brotherhood will use all the means at their disposal to make sure they get the result they want. There are already reports of vote-rigging and violation of the electoral rules.

The fact is that because there is no alternative, the elections will produce a parliament, albeit unrepresentative of the revolutionary aspirations of the masses, and from this a government will be formed. Sooner or later a new clash will take place between the masses and this government.

What is needed is a body the represents the masses – a parliament of the revolution. This should be based on revolutionary committees in every workplace, neighbourhood and barracks. Only such a parliament would enjoy a real revolutionary legitimacy and would have the right to lead revolutionary Egypt.