Biden abandons the race: can switching horses in midstream stop Trump?

In yet another dramatic twist in the tragicomic soap opera of American politics, Joe Biden has ended his reelection campaign. Coming just 108 days before the election, this is the latest a one-term president has ever made such a decision. The closest historical analogy was in 1968 when Lyndon Johnson declined to seek a second term under pressure from anti-Vietnam War protests. Genocide Joe’s stay at the White House has been marked by inflation and war, and he will end his tenure with an unfavorability rating of around 56%.

[Originally published at socialistrevolution.org]

Even the attempted assassination of his rival couldn’t stave off what seemed all but inevitable after the disastrous debate on June 27. For months, the White House has steadfastly insisted that the president’s health and mental acuity were “sharp as ever.” But eventually, the reality became too clear for even the most dedicated White House staffer to deny. The sitting president’s reluctant and late decision was the result of merciless pressure from the anti-Trump ruling class and key sections of the Democratic Party, who feared a rout in November and long-term damage if he topped the ticket. Congressional leaders like Charles Schumer, Hakeem Jeffries, Nancy Pelosi, and others urged Biden to believe the polling data.

Unsurprisingly, Biden has indicated that Barack Obama’s representatives were among those calling on him to withdraw, though Obama himself was conspicuously silent. On July 21, before Biden’s announcement, the New York Times, wrote: “The unseen but clearly felt presence of Mr. Obama in particular has brought a Shakespearean quality to the drama now playing out, given their eight-year partnership.”

Nothing scares politicians more than losing elections. But the stakes are even higher this time around, as a majority of the ruling class understands that a second Trump term will mean even more instability and the continued undermining of bourgeois institutions. His anti-establishment populism has already stirred up a social hornet’s nest, and the ruling class is desperate to calm things down. After hedging their bets on Biden for the past three years, the Democrats finally had to cut their losses and make a last minute pivot.

Harris: more of the same

Also unsurprisingly, Biden endorsed his vice president, Kamala Harris, to succeed him. Bill and Hilary Clinton, Pelosi, Schumer, Jeffries, and other Democratic Party notables followed suit in the hours that followed. Democratic National Committee chairman Jaime Harrison said in a statement after Biden’s announcement that the party would “undertake a transparent and orderly process to move forward as a united Democratic Party with a candidate who can defeat Donald Trump in November.”

Reading between the lines, there are deep divisions and doubts around Harris’s candidacy / Image: Gage Skidmore, Wikimedia Commons

Reading between the lines, there are deep divisions and doubts around Harris’s candidacy. In the end, however, though she may not be their first choice, they could hardly allow the mess around Biden’s withdrawal to drag on any longer, and she will almost certainly be the nominee. Other top contenders such as Gavin Newsom and Gretchen Whitmer would prefer to avoid the poisoned chalice of 2024, and have their eyes set on 2028 and beyond.

Harris is a former San Francisco District Attorney, California Attorney General, and US Senator from 2017 to 2021. As one of the country’s “top cops,” she mounted an unsuccessful bid for president in 2020, withdrawing even before the Iowa Caucus. Biden chose her as his running mate for the 2020 general election, and the Biden-Harris ticket defeated Trump on a wave of anti-incumbent sentiment.

Trump’s four years in power solved none of the problems of US capitalism in decay, and Biden’s term has been no different. Biden’s presidency has been a horror show. The cost of living has risen dramatically since 2020, with essential expenses like rent rising especially fast. His administration provoked a costly proxy war with Russia in Ukraine, and he personally backed Netanyahu’s genocidal war on Gaza.

When the Supreme Court struck down Roe v. Wade on his watch, Biden’s Democrats did not pass a law to legalize abortion nationally, despite controlling both houses of Congress at the time. And on top of the US-enabled slaughter in Gaza, there was considerable repression of solidarity protests here at home.

Even the New York Times noticed that although the protest movement against the imperialist killing in Gaza was much smaller than the movement against the Vietnam War at its height, about the same number of people have been arrested. Things will be no different under President Harris—should she win—as she is also a devoted defender of capitalism.

It’s possible a fresh candidate could increase the Democrats’ chances somewhat. Harris raised $81 million in grassroots donations within the first 24 hours of her campaign. But most American workers are angry at the status quo, and for millions, this means voting against the Biden-Harris government by voting for Trump. In addition, the bias toward the conservative rural petty-bourgeois built into the Electoral College means that Trump could win the presidency even if he receives fewer popular votes, as was the case in 2016.

Populism and the failure of reformism

In 2016, the anger of American workers was expressed mainly through two candidates: Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump. The Democrats did everything they could to stop Bernie from getting the party’s nomination. Sanders had an opportunity to take on the Democrats by breaking with them and forming a mass socialist party. Instead, he backed Hilary Clinton.

Trump could win the presidency even if he receives fewer popular votes, as was the case in 2016 / Image: Gage Skidmore, Wikimedia Commons

Sanders ran again for the Democratic nomination in 2020, and the capitalist class quickly coalesced around fourth-placer septuagenarian Joe Biden to stop him—a move they’re now paying a painful price for. Bernie once again supported the establishment candidate—as did the DSA members of the so-called 'Squad' in Congress. Congresswoman AOC has not only supported Biden throughout Israel’s war on Gaza, she also voted with Biden when the allegedly “pro-union” president imposed a settlement on the railroad workers and made it illegal for them to go on strike.

Sanders, AOC, and the rest of DSA’s congressional representatives have not used their position to organize against the capitalist system, but have instead helped to defend that very establishment. The crisis of capitalism is also the crisis of reformism. After all, without reforms, there is no basis for it as a policy or an outlook. Only in the pages of Jacobin is the pipe dream of peaceful cohabitation with capitalism kept alive—and like DSA’s membership, its circulation is plummeting.

All of this has left a huge space for Donald Trump and JD Vance to play their populist “worker-friendly” cards, gaining the ear of many angry and frustrated young people, as well as significant numbers of Black and Latino workers.

Build a revolutionary alternative!

A lot can happen in three-and-a-half months, but if the election were today, Trump would almost certainly win. The working class has been through the school of the Democrats, including eight years of Obama and four years of Biden. If the current polling holds, millions of angry and frustrated workers will soon enter the second session of the School of Trump. He may promise the moon and the stars, but the reality of the capitalist crisis is very different, and he won’t be able to blame the coronavirus for his woes like he did last time.

The working class is the overwhelming majority of the population, but any capitalist solution is no solution at all. The only real hope for the future is to build a mass communist party, which can lead the workers to establish a workers’ government that can democratically plan the economy, meet human needs, and allow each of us to reach our potential. Workers and youth who are looking for a real anti-establishment alternative must help build that party. That is the task the RCA has set itself. Join the Revolutionary Communists of America today!